This report provides data, mainly in the form of maps of projected urban land use change, to be used both within and outwith the PLUREL project. The report aims to allow users to understand how the maps were obtained and how the data is structured. Aside from the maps, its contribution to the project end-products also includes PLUREL Xplorer factsheets. (D1.4.3)

2009

Case study of the Hague region

The report focuses on the efforts made to steer land use developments in the urban fringe of The Hague Region, a polycentric city region with nine municipalities in the urbanized West of The Netherlands. Important trends, recent land use developments, as well as governmental and private actors in the region are analysed.

2008

Downscaling approach

This report from a research team at ZALF delivers an important part of the tool-box for downscaling. It outlines a concept of regional adaptation of scenario storylines and of modelling data derived from scenario modelling at national scale to a higher disaggregated scale. (D.1.4.1, 2008) 

Environmental drivers

Demographic projections for the case study regions

IIASA presents detailed population analyses for five European city regions: Haaglanden (NL), Koper (SI), Leipzig (DE), Greater Manchester (UK) and Warsaw (PL). Haaglanden and Manchester manage to have a positive population growth in most of the projected scenarios, while Leipzig and Warsaw show declining population numbers due to the effects of extremely low fertility and heavy out-migration (Leipzig). (D.1.2.5, 2008) 

Urban land use claims

The disaggregation of urban land use into housing, industrial and commercial buildings, roads and railways gives a better precision and a better understanding of urban land use drivers. Using the NEMESIS’ sectoral decomposition and agents’ optimisation behaviour, investments in buildings, households’ real incomes and transport needs are used in order to determine the evolution of urban development from 2008 to 2025. (D1.1.3, 2008)

Demographic projections for NUTS2 regions

Approx. 57 % out of 264 regions are expected to experience positive changes in total population over the period 2005-2030. In some regions, e.g. Flevoland, Border, Midland and Wester, Languedoc-Roussillon, Kypros/Kibris and Lincolnshire, population is expected to increase with at least 30 % in the next two decades. (D.1.2.3, 2008)

Rural Urban Regions – overview of typologies

Piotr Korcelli, Polish Academy of Science, gives an introduction to the development of typologies of European urban-rural regions. Three different categories of regions are identified: 1) Studies in which the hierarchical structure is determined by the functional profile as well as the range of functions performed, the population potential, and the political and administrative status of the main urban centre, 2) Typologies based on urbanization level and the morphology of the settlement, as well as density and redistribution of population, 3) Studies focused on the interdependence of and interaction between the urban, peri-urban and rural zones. (D.2.1.1, 2008)

Towards a new RUR typology

This document by ARCsys contains a draft classification of the major European Rural Urban Regions at NUTS3 level. It contains 3 different characteristics: 1) Morphology (core city pattern and related sub-centres), 2) Shape (compact or dispersed), 3) Dynamics (growing or shrinking). The typology layers can be applied both separately and combined. (D.2.1.2/D.2.1.3, 2008)

Joint Analytical Framework for the case study regions

The seven case studies, coordinated by Carmen Aalbers, Alterra, requires a common research approach and identification of common land use issues to focus on. For the PLUREL case studies the following six issues have been identified as the most important rural-urban conflicts: land pressure due to housing, agricultural land under pressure, nature at risk, integration of tourism, traffic, water management. (D3.2.1., 2008)

Scenario framework

Based on the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios narratives a PLUREL research team led by Joe Ravetz, University of Manchester, have formulated four scenarios: A1 – High growth, A2 – Fragmentation, B1 – Cleaner affluence, B2 – Green enclaves. Each scenario is extended with the development of a “shock” scenario, allowing an analysis of change drivers that are of great significance to urban-rural relationships. (D1.3.2., 2008)

European lessons for Green and Blue services on the Netherlands

Green and blue services were developed in The Netherlands to reward farmers for the environmental services they provide to society. In the PLUREL case study of Haaglanden blue-green servives is seen as a means to promote agriculture in the peri-urban zone. The report describe blue-green initiatives in Germany, Spain, and United Kingdom.  (Working paper, 2008)

2007

Dissemination plan

Communication and dissemination are central to PLUREL’s work, as the projects aims to produce results that make a difference in land-use decision making. Dissemination is not an “add on” to R&D work, but an integrative part of it. (D6.4.4., 2007)

Environmental drivers

The environmental drivers fall into two distinct categories: Climate change and anthropogenic environmental pressures. An important element of this conceptual note is the preparation of a baseline profile that incorporates descriptions of recent trends and current status of four environmental resources: Air, biodiversity, soil and water. (D1.3.1., 2007)

Population projections for EU27

IIASA presents probabilistic population projections for 27 EU countries and three other world regions. For each country the population by single year of age and sex I projected up to 2050. Besides the total population size, results are also shown for the proportion of people aged 65+, 80+, in working age and below 15. (D1.2.2., 2007) 

Equal but not the same

PLUREL has set up a Gender Action Plan to promote women implemented an ongoing sex-disaggregated monitoring concerning all gender relevant issues. (D6.1.2., 2007) 

Methods for demographic projections

Researchers from IIASA (International Institute of Applied Systems Analyses) discuss various population projection techniques, and their strengths and weaknesses. They conclude that stochastic projections are best suited for the national level, while classic or multiregional cohort-component model projections are like the best choice for regional and case study levels. (D1.2.1., 2007)

Typology of driving forces on generic urban region types

The report outlines a conceptual approach to incorporate the differences in sensibility towards macro-level drivers, by type of rural-urban region, into the pan-European results of the PLUREL project. (D1.4.1, 2007)

Models of rural-urban systems

This report reviews existing urban land use models focussing on the main approaches, components, and variables of interest in existing models. The main outputs of this review are the 16 data sheets, each containing a description of en existing simulation model. (D4.1.1, 2007)